From: walkawayslowly	Date: May 7th, 2007 02:06 pm (UTC)		(Link)

On Saturday I saw my mom and she asked all these questions about Derby and your level of excitement. I was like, mom, it's WHITS, of course she's excited. Except I couldn't tell her who you thought would win. :p

Your horsey-ness is apparently the stuff of legend in my household. :D

	From: silvercharmer	Date: May 7th, 2007 03:23 pm (UTC)		(Link)

HAHAHA. I have that effect on people. =)

	From: drelmo	Date: May 7th, 2007 02:33 pm (UTC)		(Link)

I dunno. It was an impressive race, but there was a huge luck component. If Street Sense/Borel had gotten bound up at the rail just once it would have been over for them; he wouldn't have been able to move outside and get around the pack.

Hard Spun had a hell of a race, too--it takes quite a horse to lead the Derby for the first mile and still have enough juice to come in second by, what, about five lengths?

The likely smaller fields at the Preakness and Belmont will help Street Sense, but his luck is going to have to keep running hot.

	From: silvercharmer	Date: May 7th, 2007 03:55 pm (UTC)		(Link)

There's always a huge luck component. In a free for all field of 20 horses, there are more things that can go wrong than right. But any horse who can thread the field from 19th to first has got something going for him, and he's proved all along he's got a lot of class.

Hard Spun ran an amazing race, but he would have to be Superman's horse to not have it take a lot out of him on top of that fast work earlier in the week. I'm more worried about Curlin, who despite his inexperience and being a lot further back with a lot more dirt in his face than he's ever had before, still got up for third.

Anyway. We'll see how the field shapes up, but I have all the confidence that he's got the ability and the class to get the Preakness. The racing gods often have other thoughts, though. =)

	From: drelmo	Date: May 7th, 2007 04:03 pm (UTC)		(Link)

I actually was thinking that, in fact, there's less luck in the Derby than there used to be; more specifically, that the jockeys and trainers have figured out how to deal with the huge crowd effectively.

The reason I say that is back in the 80s, when the huge fields first started showing up, we seemed to be in an "Any Given Saturday" situation, where you could rerun the race three times and get three different winners; it wasn't being won by the actual best horses.

But starting in the 90s, it seems like the winner is, more often than not, an actually good horse. How many dual Derby-Preakness winners have there been in the last ten years compared to the 80s?

	From: silvercharmer	Date: May 7th, 2007 04:46 pm (UTC)		(Link)

In the 80s Pleasant Colony, Alysheba and Sunday Silence got the Derby/Preakness double. In the 90s it didn't happen intil the trio in 97, 98, 99 (Silver Charm, Real Quiet, Charismatic).

Thunder Gulch got the Derby/Belmont in 95; so did Swale in 1984. The largest field was actually in 1975 when Foolish Pleasure (also a 2 year old champ) beat 22 other horses. After that they insitgated the max field size of 20, because things were getting a bit out of hand.

I wouldn't say there was a drastic problem with quality horses winning between the 80s and 90s. Winning Colors ('88) was a champion, went on to win the DC distaff. Ferdinand ('86) won the BC classic, as did Alysheba. Spend A Bucl ('85) actually skipped the Preakness and Belmont, but was named 3 y/o champion. Gato del Sol is probably the least impressive of the 80s.

In the 90s, Unbridled was a champion and BC winner, Strike the Gold ('91) was a bum the rest of his 3 y/o season but won some major races at 4. Lil E. Tee ('92) was a dud, Sea Hero ('93) won the Travers, but not much after that. Go For Gin ('94) also kind of a dud. Thunder Gulch ('95) was a fantastic racehorse, actually only lost the TC by about half a length, Grindestone ('96) never raced again, and then of the previously mentioned trio, the best of them was Silver Charm, who also won the Dubai World Cup.

So far in the 2000s, Fusaichi Pegasus, though favored, never went on to do anything else. Monarchos kinda sucked, War Emblem retired shortly after the TC but was a good horse coming in, Funny Cide sucked, Smarty Jones was adored but retired after the Belmont, Giacomo sucked. So in the past decade, actually, the problem is that horses either suck coming into the race and suck again right after, or they win and then retire and don't go on to do anything else, which was not what tended to happen in the 80s and 90s. Hopefully that is the trend Street Sense will buck.

That was probably a much longer response than you were anticipating. =)

	From: drelmo	Date: May 7th, 2007 05:28 pm (UTC)		(Link)

No, no, I'm delighted for someone who knows more than me to set me straight. It sounds like I was extracting patterns that don't exist (and that the doldrum period I was remembering was more the early 90s than the 80s).

So I think I'm going to stick with a much simpler (and non-progressive) statement: The Derby is not an effective sieve for selecting high-quality racing thoroughbreds. About half the time, the Derby winner is a high-quality horse who deserved to win, and about half the time the Derby winner is more or less random.

Do you think there is any progressivity at all? Are trainers and jockeys better now than they were two or three decades ago?

	From: silvercharmer	Date: May 7th, 2007 05:59 pm (UTC)		(Link)

There was actually discussion in the week leading up to the race about the number of horses ranked on the Blood-Horse's list of top 100 horses in the 20th century who did NOT win the Derby, most notably Gallant Man, Nashua, Native Dancer (the Derby was the only race he lost), Alydar, Arts and Letters, etc.

The problem these days is less with the riders and trainers (though I was GIDDY over the fact that Todd Pletcher didn't even hit the board - his Wal-Mart approach to training pisses me off) and more with the horses themselves. They are too inbred and too fragile nowadays to withstand a hard racing career, and the transformation of horse racing from a sport to a business has made it harder to keep good horses in training because of their stud value.

Horses used to run back in these top races within a couple of days, not weeks and months. They just can't do that anymore. Look at the really good horses who have won the Derby lately: Smarty Jones and Barbaro. We all know what happened to Barbaro, and Smarty was injured in the Belmont and never raced again. Charismatic broke down in the Belmont and never raced again. Two year olds who shine rarely make noise at three, which is part of why I'm so happy about Street Sense. The last Derby winner who went on to be a successful racehorse at age 4 was probably Silver Charm, who won the Clark, won the Dubai WC, and a couple of other races, but even he did not manage to snag the BC Classic. The last Derby winner to do that was I think Unbridled in 1990. If Street Sense could bag those three, he would be considered one of the greats, and probably the best horse to come our way this decade.

The breeding industry is where the problem is, in my eyes. These horses just aren't strong enough to stick around. There's an argument that by allowing AI instead of requiring live covers, we might be able to diversify things a little, but the opposite argument can also be made there. Importing some new blood might help. I've been a fan of horses who come from the southern hemisphere, like Brazil or Argentina, because some of those suckers can run all day, and run as older horses (the latest in that string being Invasor), but so far they haven't been great successes in the breeding shed.

Who knows. But you're right; you don't have to be the best horse in the field to win the Kentucky Derby. But the horse who does win gets immortalized anyway. =)

	From: mumtaz	Date: May 8th, 2007 05:45 pm (UTC)		(Link)

Winning Colors actually ran second by a nose to Personal Ensign in the BC Distaff. ;) But nit-picking aside, I agree with your thoughts on Street Sense. It's very exciting to see a 2 year-old champ who still has the goods at three. He may not be the Second Coming, but as long as he continues to run well and consistently, I'll be thrilled. :)

	From: silvercharmer	Date: May 8th, 2007 06:55 pm (UTC)		(Link)

Yeah, that was a typo on my part. My bad.

	From: blueshimmer	Date: May 7th, 2007 07:13 pm (UTC)		(Link)

WORD UP SISTER!

The only thing that didn't make me happy about the Derby was how poorly the two Distorted Humors performed. But, since they were both in the Pletcher barn, I can live with it. :D

I'm not convinced Street Sense has what it takes to win the crown, I think the Preakness will cause him trouble and I'm not too sure if he'll like Big Sandy very well. There's no question this horse has a gigantic tank of gas, so the distance isn't a problem, but I'm not so sure he'll get that lucky in the next two Jewels.

But if he does do it, and does it with the added jewel of the Breeders Cup Juvenile, then I'm all for it! I like him better than I've liked any Derby winner since Funny Cide (Funny Cide is still mah boy.... even if he's turning into a clunker now.)

Yeah, this Derby was incredible, and makes me want to follow the sport again. And we needed that, after what happened with Barbaro. We need a feel-good story to counterbalance that horror-fest.

	From: silvercharmer	Date: May 7th, 2007 08:04 pm (UTC)		(Link)

I like the fact that he's fresh and classy. Time will tell. As long as he sticks around for a while and continues to run well, I'll be tickled to death!

	From: daylami	Date: May 7th, 2007 10:15 pm (UTC)		(Link)

This is a whole new generation of jockeys we've got on the racetracks now. I think I knew about four out of twenty on Saturday, and so to see one from my generation (that sounds stupid; I'm only twenty five, but I've been a die hard since age ten) still win that race made me very happy.

Heh, when I was in sixth grade my "friend" Amanda and I would get into fights on the school bus over which one of us would get to marry Mike Smith. She was built like a diesel Cabbage Patch kid and hit pretty hard, so I think he'd agree that I earned the right to wear his ring. Anyway, I had to point Mr. Smith out to Steve during this year's Derby telecast: "I was in love with that guy when I was twelve! He had hair!"

	From: silvercharmer	Date: May 8th, 2007 01:06 pm (UTC)		(Link)

For me it was Gary Stevens. Holy hell how I adored (that should probably be present tense) that man. Though, it's a little weird to share a crush with your mom. hee.